Not Always Second Order: Subnational Elections, National-level Vote Intentions, and Volatility Spillovers in a Multi-level Electoral System
Michael M. Bechtel
Electoral Studies, 2012
Abstract
The widespread second-order view on subnational elections leaves little room for the idea that subnational election campaigns matter for national-level electoral preferences. I challenge this perspective and explore the context-conditional role of subnational election campaigns for national-level vote intentions in multi-level systems. Campaigns direct citizens' attention to the political and economic "fundamentals" that determine their electoral preferences. Subnational election campaigns and the major campaign issues receive nation-wide media coverage. This induces all citizens in a country to evaluate parties at the national level even if they themselves are not eligible to vote in the upcoming subnational election. Thereby, subnational election campaigns may lead to a reduction in the uncertainty of voters' national-level electoral preferences throughout the country, which is reflected by a decrease in the volatility of national-level vote intentions.
Key Finding
Subnational elections reduce uncertainty in nationwide federal-level vote intentions for major parties; incumbency and coalitional patterns moderate this effect.
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Michael M. Bechtel (2012). Not Always Second Order: Subnational Elections, National-level Vote Intentions, and Volatility Spillovers in a Multi-level Electoral System. Electoral Studies. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2011.10.006